1.
Introduction
Governments around the world
have set very ambitious goals and are running programmes with
considerable financial volume for the implementation of electronic
service delivery in the public sector. The European Commission
stimulates and reinforces these innovation programmes with its “eEurope”
initiative and related benchmarking studies (CGEY 2004). Measuring
progress in e-Government is widely practised and used as a key
instrument to motivate implementation efforts through a sense of
competition. It is hardly surprising that e-Government has become one of
the most widespread terms when it comes to the modernisation of public
administrations (Lenk 2002).
Quality and cost of public
services and public administrations have indeed become important issues:
Every citizen and formal organisations encounter more or less frequent
interactions with public agencies throughout their life cycle; public
service quality affects quality of life, business activities and
political legitimacy; choice of delivery has to match the already
widespread use of the Internet in private life and business; service
quality counts as an increasingly significant factor in decisions on
business locations; and the costs and efficiency of public services and
public administrations have become key concerns of public sector reform
with the pressure to reduce fiscal deficits and to consolidate public
budgets.
The realisation of electronic
government and transformation of service delivery (Prins 2001) is
accompanied by strategic policy frameworks intended to guide basic
decisions and day-to-day practical actions. They set the course for
far-reaching changes, but are inevitably confronted with uncertainty
regarding their long-term sustainability. The paper explores how
scenario methods can be used to cope better with the uncertainties of
future macro-environments of e-Government and to arrive at more robust
e-Government strategies.
2.
Innovation risks and sustainability of e-Government strategies
Numerous studies show that
e-Government has gained momentum as an innovation goal of governments
world-wide (e.g. TNS 2003; Ronaghan 2002). Practical implementation
involves major investments in human resources, technology and change
management. They lead to more or less far-reaching interventions into
administrative processes, structures and service delivery. The strategic
design and realisation of these technological and organisational
innovations face manifold challenges and uncertainties. What is more
surprising is the low level of attention paid to the sustainability of
e-Government strategies and structures in most of these initiatives.
They entail risks on at least
two levels: with respect to implementation success and with
respect to long-term sustainability. Successful implementation
and operation of e-Government projects depend on the interplay of a
number of elements in each of the main factors – people, technology,
organisation and financial resources, legal and political frameworks. In
general, implementation risks correlate with the complexity and
innovativeness of a project, but as RAENG and BCS (2004: p. 4) note, “…
the importance of risk management is poorly understood”.
Examples of implementation
problems, delays and failures in the area of e-Government can be found
in practically all countries (cf. Heeks 1999: pp. 50-58). In Germany,
for instance, the failure to set up a satellite-based highway toll
system that should have gone into operation as planned in August 2003
has led to a national debacle, a loss of EUR 156 – 180 million per month
since then and calls for resignation of the transport minister (Expatica
2004). In the UK, too, a front-runner in e-Government, there is a whole
list of problem cases: E.g., Pathway, a social benefit-payment card
scheme, is reported to have “collapsed after three years, wasting ₤300m.
The Child Support Agency’s ₤200m system, … is now expected to launch … a
year late and ₤50m over budget. In 1999, problems with the Passport
Office’s new computer system caused chaos for thousand travellers. It
was finally launched … three years late” (Economist 2002: pp. 37-38).
Another case to be added concerned the Customs and Excise’s switch to
paying VAT online, which caused major problems around November 2002. In
Austria, the implementation of an electronic insurance card in the
health system has been delayed for several years. After the continued
failure of an international consortium to provide the e-card, the
Federation of Social Insurances finally cancelled the contract in spring
2003 after two years and started a new tender (Hauptverband 2003).
Causes of failures are manifold
and range from technical problems to insufficient care for customer
relations. However, our main topic here is the second category of risks,
those concerning the more long-term sustainability of e-Government
structures.
In view of the enormous
investments and change impacts on public service delivery which are at
stake, it is imperative to take a more long-term perspective. That
sustainability is a critical issue is illustrated e.g. by one of the
greatest challenges faced by many e-Government initiatives today: the
question of sustained service take-up, use and consent by citizens and
businesses. At present there are certainly more warning signals
indicating that more attention must be paid to these issues than cause
for all-clear. For instance the discrepancy between Internet access and
use of e-Government services: “Despite nearly two-thirds of Britons
having internet access, fewer than one in three has visited even one of
the 3,000 government and council websites. And only 5% of internet users
say they regularly use government websites to access public services”,
is reported in a recent UK study carried out by Hedra, a major
consulting firm in the UK specialised in government organisations. The
almost complete absence of elderly and socially deprived groups adds to
the picture. No wonder that the report warns of the danger of creating
“online millennium domes with just as few visitors” (Tempest 2002:
p.10). As evidenced in the survey by TNS (2003), many other countries
have similar usage problems.
It is therefore advisable to
anticipate risks concerning the sustainability of e-Government as far as
possible as early as during the development of strategies for its
implementation, and to search for possibilities to reduce such risks.
Unquestioned concentration on current or excessively optimistic views of
general conditions endangers the sustainability of any strategy. The
failure to identify potential changes in the environment of e-Government
severely damages strategic policy. E-Government, like any organisation
or project, is faced with complex sets of external drivers of change
which create uncertainty about future environments and general
conditions. What is required in this situation is an increase in the
capabilities to explore and anticipate if not control possible future
developments that impact on e-Government structures, and the
corresponding adaptation of e-Government strategies. An established
instrument to improve strategic decisions in a context of change,
uncertainty and complexity is the scenario method (van der Heijden et
al. 2002: pp. 142).
3.
Scenario planning in e-Government
Scenario analysis and scenario
planning have evolved into a great diversity of forms and applications
over the last 50 years (van Notten et al. 2003). Despite the
diversity of scenario methods, a common core element is to explore
possible development paths and plausible, usually alternative images of
the future. Alternative scenarios, i.e. pictures and stories that
portray various future states, are able to challenge accustomed lines of
thought and assumptions, to question the extrapolation of existing
general conditions into the future, and to open up the view towards
possible alternative and unexpected developments. This should enable
decision-makers to sharpen their attention to critical factors and to
take decisions which are better prepared for an uncertain future. In
principle a scenario portrays a “possible future” which can then be used
to assess strategies regarding its sustainability. An ultimate goal is
to promote the design of strategies which are more robust, i.e. which
fit different future scenarios.
Scenario approaches may differ
in many respects even in their basic dimensions, such as project goal
(exploration vs. decision support, descriptive vs. normative), process
design (intuitive vs. formal), scenario content (complex vs. simple) and
individual characteristics (van Notten et al. 2003: pp. 426).
Endogenous and exogenous developments play an important role in the
process of scenario building. A common approach to structuring and
exploring external environments is known as STEEP analysis – the
analysis of Societal, Technological, Economic, Ecological and Political
variables (van der Heijden et al. 2002: pp. 156). Whether a
resulting scenario represents a desirable or undesirable future, in any
case it needs to fulfil certain criteria:
§
“It should be plausible, but it
does not have to be probable. Indeed, given the uncertainty of the
future, it needs to be explicitly stated that the scenario is not a
prediction, but only a possibility, as likely as many other
possibilities.
§
It should be internally consistent
in order to be plausible and in order to enable a coherent discussion.
(……)
§
It should contain enough information
to describe the functioning of a system” (Aichholzer et al. 2002:
p. 8).
While scenario planning is
widely used in many sectors and disciplines (van Notten et al.
examine around 70 scenario studies), applications in the area of
e-Government are less frequent. A case of systematic scenario planning
in e-Government has been a project at regional level in the UK:
Northshire Council in cooperation with a telecommunications organisation
employed a facilitated scenario approach and elaborated four alternative
scenarios of e-Government for the time-line from 2001 towards 2006 (van
der Heijden et al. 2002: pp. 190). Outcomes and the resulting
debate informed the strategic e-Government decisions and operational
actions of regional government in Northshire in favour of a more viable,
integrated and long-term perspective. Another interesting example is the
development of four scenarios of “web-enabling government change” by
Dunleavy and Margetts (2002). They are mainly differentiated by extent
of change and relations to New Public Management (NPM), leading to
possible scenarios labelled ‘Digital NPM’, ‘Digital State Paradigm’,
‘Policy Mess’ and ‘State Residualization’, respectively.
One of the most recent examples
of the use of a scenario approach in the field of e-Government is the
European research project PRISMA (Providing innovative service models
and assessment). Funded by the European Commission’s action line on IST
within the 5th Framework Programme and completed in spring 2003, this
example aimed at enhancing current good practice strategies towards more
robust, future-oriented ones (see also http://www.prisma-eu.net/). It
allows for a more detailed look at the process and outcomes which should
help to assess the strategic value of scenario approaches.
4.
Scenario development in the European research project PRISMA
The scenario process took place
in 2002 and dealt – among others – with the future of e-Government
towards a time horizon of 2010. It used the STEEP approach to analyse
the overall contextual environment of e-Government in Europe in a
two-stage process (Table 1):
Table
1:
Structure of the scenario process in PRISMA
|
|
Stage 1:
Macro-scenarios for 2010 |
Stage 2:
Implications for
e-Government strategies |
|
Actors |
PRISMA scenario team |
Scenario team plus
external experts |
|
Input |
Approx. 100 trends in five
categories (STEEP) |
3 macro-scenarios
developed in stage 1 |
|
Output |
3 alternative
macro-scenarios:
(1) “A prosperous and more
just Europe”
(2) “A turbulent world”
(3) “Recession and
reorientation” |
SWOT analysis of current
good practice
Expected implications for
e-Government
Design requirements in
favour of more robust strategies |
In a first stage the
scenario-team identified a large number of empirically grounded
influence factors and trends along the STEEP-dimensions which could play
a major role for the design and future delivery of e-Government
services. Nearly 100 variables were assessed with regard to impact,
level of certainty, controllability and significance for Europe. From
this analysis four scenario dimensions were determined: economy/society,
governance, information technology and environmental sustainability.
Eight possible scenarios were considered for development with different
characteristics in these dimensions before a set of three was selected
as sufficiently differentiated and manageable for further steps of
analysis. All three scenarios are independent, internally coherent
contextual macro-scenarios of e-Government which were elaborated and
labelled as follows: (1) “A prosperous and more just Europe”, (2) “A
turbulent world”, (3) “Recession and re-orientation”.
In a second stage, the
implications of these macro-scenarios for e-Government services were
analysed in workshops with external experts (eight persons from all over
Europe, selected for both subject field and ICT expertise, moderated by
the scenario team). The experts defined requirements for future-oriented
e-Government services by analysing current good practice models against
each scenario by way of a SWOT analysis (strength/weakness –
opportunities/threats). This allowed both contingent (i.e.
scenario-dependent) and robust (i.e. scenario-independent) elements to
be identified. Both deserve to be taken into account in strategy
development for improving the sustainability of e-Government strategies.
4.1
Macro-scenarios for e-Government in 2010
A graphic presentation of the
basic profiles provides a first overview of the three alternative
macro-scenarios (Figure 1). Scenario profiles are represented by
polygons of different shape, constituted by different values on each of
the four basic dimensions which are plotted along the coordinate half
axes (economy/society; governance; information technology;
environmental sustainability). The symbols + and – denote opposite poles
or levels of these variables but should not be interpreted normatively.
Positive poles are located outward, negative poles towards the centre
(for technical reasons of visibility one unit off the origin). A brief
explanation how to read the values of the four constitutive dimensions:
Economy/society:
+
prosperous economic and integrative social climate
0
economic, social and political stagnation
–
negative general economic and social climate (‘Euro-depression’)
Governance:
+ high
level of clash between centralised government and private sector
0
balanced relation between government and private sector
–
falling apart of central governance, decentralised governance
Information technology:
+
dynamic progress of IT innovations
–
slow-down of IT innovations
Environmental sustainability:
+ high
support for environmental sustainability
–
low/no support for environmental sustainability
The three macro-scenarios
represent alternative portrayals of possible contextual conditions for
e-Government in Europe. The following are brief outlines with
implications for e-Government. They cannot do full justice to the
elaborate versions provided in Aichholzer et al. (2002) but
should convey the major characteristics.
Figure 1:
Profiles of alternative macro-scenarios
4.2
Implications of alternative scenarios for e-Government
4.2.1
Scenario 1: “A prosperous and more just Europe”
In this rather utopian, though
most desirable scenario of all, Europe experiences an economic upswing in
which practically all segments of society participate. Moore’s Law is
still in force and ICT continues to contribute to the prosperity and
sustainable development of Europe.
In the positive general climate
citizens are very open-minded towards information and communication
technologies (ICT) and trust in security standards and data protection.
General prosperity has largely allowed the elimination of the digital
divide so that a large majority of Internet users have access to a diverse
range of electronic services. Investments in extension on a grand scale,
Internet access from home and public access points guarantee the supply of
a broad range of e-Government services practically all over Europe.
Modernisation and digitalisation of public administration has brought
online services which are easily accessible, of high quality and trustful.
Internet portals integrate services for citizens according to relevant
life events (e.g. birth, marriage, work) and for businesses along major
business events (e.g. formation of a company, work contract). Personalised
services respond to individual needs of users and the provision of
multiple access channels to public services extends individual choice. New
human agents offer support to users of e-Government services. Horizontal
and vertical integration of back offices is of high priority for public
administrations and increases service quality for citizens and businesses.
Even under these generally favourable conditions for e-Government some
elements of uncertainty and concern remain, e.g. concerning political
apathy, centralisation of services through highly integrated networks and
privatisation of basic services.
4.2.2
Scenario 2: “A turbulent world”
In this scenario economic growth
is not sustained. In response there is a shift towards strong central
government direction, while at the same time the market power of the
private sector greatly increases. The two forces are frequently in severe
conflict. Information technology continues its growth, but regard for
sustainability is lost in the combination of economic volatility and
conflict.
The private sector extends its
range of electronic services and increasingly takes over tasks from the
public sector. The administrative apparatus is rationalised by “lean
administration” and “new public management”, downsized, modernised with
e-Government projects, including improved accessibility to public sector
information. However, the enormous costs of securing a permanent level of
service quality represent a financial burden and set clear limits. Trust
of European citizens in technical systems is given and international
security and privacy standards are of public concern. Fragmentation of
society penetrates all spheres of life and also has negative impacts on
access to and use of ICT: The digital divide has increased rather than
reduced. Financial restrictions and skill deficits prevent large parts of
the population from using other than simple e-Government services, e.g.
accessing information. Only a minority of these segments have access to
more complex transaction services or electronic signatures. Wealthy middle
and upper class people profit from converging technologies and advanced
innovations in the services offered. They carry out their administrative
contacts completely online and enjoy the benefits of personalised and
premium services. (It seems as if effective policies to counter the strong
forces acting towards such a severe divide are still missing).
4.2.3
Scenario 3: “Recession and reorientation”
In the third scenario the European
economy is gradually recovering from a severe crisis which had peaked
around the middle of the decade. The experiences cause people to rebel
against technology, government and markets in favour of decentralisation,
environmentalism and de-globalisation. In essence, the scenario assumes
slow economic development, a smaller and decentralised role of government,
a slow development of ICT, but an increasingly sustainable environmental
development.
EU member states have made
progress in consolidating their budgets and achieved cost-savings through
rationalisation in the public sector and closer cooperation with the
private sector. In many countries privatisation and outsourcing of public
functions have created “lean administrations”. A serious problem for
citizens is the lack of transparency of government. The IT industry
suffers from more than a lack of government investment. At the same time
the dynamics of technology undergo a considerable setback. (Recent
indications that overcoming the problem of heat generated by ever faster
computer chips might hit a ‘technical wall’ make this appear even more
likely; this could challenge the continued validity of Moore’s law).
Advances in interactions with computers are also hampered by constraints
set by environmental regulations and the increasing turn to life styles
which favour personal interaction instead of electronic communication.
Most of all, there is a special reason why citizens view IT applications
with decided scepticism: Manifest scandals around the misuse of personal
data by government agencies as well as private companies have caused a
radical loss of trust in e-services. Citizens and smaller companies lack
the knowledge and resources to secure data effectively. The result is that
many avoid using e-services. Especially advanced transaction services in
e-Government requiring authentication or personalised services lose
attraction. On the other hand the low value added of many simple
information services leads to a sharp decline in usage. Data security
becomes a key issue at EU level. Citizens prefer to trust NGOs which deal
with privacy, technology issues and democratic participation. In these
networks e-services do play a role: Consultations and participation of
NGOs in decision processes are increasingly carried out online. A more
open question might be the implications for the use of online
communication by social movements and political activists under this
scenario.
5.
Lessons for the design of more robust e-Government strategies
The implications of each scenario
for the suitability of current good practice concepts in e-Government has
been elaborately discussed in workshops with external experts and examined
by means of a SWOT analysis. This exercise looked at the strengths and
weaknesses of major good practice principles of today and held them
against the opportunities and threats associated with each scenario. One
of the results was to derive a number of design strategies which could be
regarded as more or less robust across different scenarios:
5.1
User and target group oriented design
One of the most basic design
elements to be prioritised is demand and user centeredness.
Decisions on the priority of individual services are a special aspect of
this, i.e. concerning type, breadth and depth of online services to be
developed. It implies investing in instruments such as demand
identification, user participation and feed back, analysing frequency and
volume of service usage, quality controls and cost/benefit-calculations.
Exemplary approaches and practices can be found especially in Canada,
whereas their role in many strategy documents is often confined to a mere
rhetoric function. This is underlined, e.g. by a critique expressed by the
Audit Office in the USA of the lack of citizen-centeredness in many
initiatives (GAO 2002: p. 2).
E-Government services should also
take account of the specific needs of different groups of users.
However, except for the business sector where services need to be tailored
to fit individual sectors (e.g. tourism vs. industrial companies), the
extent of individualisation and personalisation has been assessed as
scenario-dependent and therefore needs careful definition in practice.
Another aspect is the optimisation of user friendliness of
e-services by means of usability tests, standardisation and design
guidelines (style guides). Good practice cases are e.g., e-Vienna, Bremen
Online or single services such as the Family Fund in the UK or the
Clermont-Ferrand birth certificate service in France.
5.2
Multi-channel service delivery
It will certainly be necessary to
offer alternative forms of interaction with governments in the future,
despite the increase of private Internet access. In a Bavarian study
almost 80% preferred this form, but a high proportion opted for alterative
channels including call centres, electronic kiosks, as well as traditional
personal and mail contact (Accenture, 2002: p. 11). In British surveys
digital TV and local libraries together with cybercafés are included among
the preferred access channels.
“Public access points”
in agency offices, libraries, schools, youth and cultural centres etc. are
a robust element in all scenarios. They fulfil important social functions.
The business sector also profits from publicly accessible electronic
service options: Online transactions in situ allow for more flexible and
efficient services both for customers and agencies, e.g. in tourism
applications. Among good practice cases of electronic kiosk systems are
those in Sheffield and Bremen, whereas experiences in Antwerp were
negative due to organisational deficiencies. What is important is an
environment of support and learning opportunities such as offered in
libraries.
5.3
Increasing service quality and efficiency through reorganisation
Integrating e-Government services
in the form of one-stop service and portals is a key
characteristic of innovative services. Major advantages are simpler, more
flexible and time-saving access and service delivery for users. They also
support transparency of governments and – especially in combination with
tracking facilities – public administrations. Structuring service offers
according to user perspectives in contrast to administrative criteria is a
related principle. Good practice cases demonstrate this with “life
events” or “business events” as criteria of organisation.
Such improved service quality at the “front office” normally requires
substantial process redesign and reorganisation of “back offices”. This is
especially the case when it comes to the implementation of one-stop
service portals allowing for complete online transactions, eventually
across different levels of government and sectors (CGEY 2004: p. 19).
5.4
Social inclusion
A socially non-exclusive supply of
e-services is closely related to target group orientation and
multi-channel access. Basic general interest services have to be
accessible in simple and affordable forms. For this reason, e-Government
strategies need to include elements which avoid the creation or
perpetuation of social divisions as a consequence of technology.
Disadvantaged groups in society need special attention and support
concerning access and use of e-Government services. The “design for
all” principle, multi-lingual services and special
incentives such as peer group support are possible means which serve
this goal. The importance is underlined by a study in the USA which
observed an increase of premium services at higher fees and warned of the
creation of a “two class” society for e-Government users (West 2002: p.
13).
5.5
Security, privacy and trust
In all three scenarios the
trustful handling of data and related issues of privacy of citizens and
businesses play a significant if not central role. The notion of trust
concerns several key aspects of data and information: availability,
integrity, authenticity, confidentiality, non-contestability (this latter
point is pivotal for legal and commercial applications).
Enhancing security, privacy and
trust deserves top priority in e-Government strategies and efforts need to
include a large variety of measures and principles, such as collection and
use limitation, purpose specification, security safeguards,
accountability, encouraging the use of privacy enhancing technologies and
quality certificates. Positive examples are the privacy provisions in
Canada or quality seals for e-Government services such as introduced in
Austria (see http://www.cio.gv.at/service/brochures/IPIII_
Guetesiegel_final.pdf).
6.
Conclusions
This paper focused on the
sustainability of e-Government structures and the application of scenario
analysis in support of this goal. It showed that scenario planning can
raise the awareness of future uncertainties and aligns different frames of
reference in a focused and systematic way. The scenario process stimulates
active engagement with issues of long-term sustainability and an
assessment of today’s strategies against alternative futures. The
construction of multiple scenarios allows for a testing of robustness of
current good practice and policy options. Those strategies, principles and
practices which withstand the test of widely different scenarios can be
regarded as more robust options than those which only fit specific
scenarios. It was shown that the sustainability of particular designs of
e-Government depends on a number of future developments and contextual
conditions such as the position of e-Government on the political agenda,
assignment of resources, attitudes towards technology, data protection and
privacy, the development of the digital divide, and technical progress.
Scenario exercises permit the exploration and assessment of the
vulnerability of strategies against different future environments. Local
and sector-specific application of such exercises allows tailoring and
fine-tuning of strategies according to different institutional conditions
and development states of e-Government.
However, the potential of scenario
approaches also has its limits. It is certainly debateable how
contradictory requirements suggested by scenario outcomes can be evaded,
or how gains in the sense of more ‘future-proof’ e-Government can be
balanced against possible costs such as a slower innovation rate or
sub-optimal technical rationalisation. Moreover, it is questionable how
far a direct translation of scenario insights into practical strategic
measures is at all feasible and on what further elaboration should be
based. But in sum, scenario approaches can be a useful tool for drawing
attention to neglected risks, thus enhancing strategy development and
promoting the sustainability of e-Government, which also helps to
transform public administrations into more future-oriented, adaptive
learning organisations.
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